Responsibility
  • Research and White Papers
  • March 2025

Climate Change Mortality Risk: Hong Kong

The impact of climate change on future mortality in Hong Kong

A red sailboat in the water off Hong Kong
In Brief
In this summary analysis, ˿ƵAPP's Chris Falkous assesses the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in Hong Kong by 2050, deriving insights with potential global application and providing a template for analyses in other markets. 

Key takeaways

  • ˿ƵAPP conducted a thorough review of the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in Hong Kong, including factors ranging from temperature change and air pollution to food insecurity and vector-borne disease.
  • For those physical risks where the change could be estimated, the overall impact of climate change on mortality in Hong Kong was relatively modest, with annual population deaths potentially increasing by around 1% in 2050. This impact would be reduced by adaptation measures taken to mitigate the physical risks.
  • This result may be counter to expectations of a more significant impact, although we need to recognize the uncertainties involved. Importantly, these findings do not absolve society from taking action – both in Hong Kong and globally – to limit greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change impacts.

To a first-order approximation, the WEF/Oliver Wyman estimates imply that annual average global mortality rates could increase by around 1% by 2050. Vulnerability to these climate change risks varies by region, and so it is to be expected that if the average impact is 1%, some regions may see a significantly higher increase in mortality rates.

Asia is expected to be affected by most risks associated with climate change. The WEF analysis points to the vulnerability of Asia to tropical storms, Southeast Asia in relation to floods, and southern East Asia in relation to heatwaves. 

Given the importance of the insurance market in Hong Kong, ˿ƵAPP reviewed the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in Hong Kong by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 “middle of the road” emissions scenario. This article provides a summary of that analysis.

Industrial smokestacks at dusk
As insurers struggle to assess mortality risks in a warming world, thoughtful analysis is essential. In a new report, ˿ƵAPP focuses on mortality impacts in Hong Kong and delivers timely insights applicable to all markets.

Summary of physical risk impacts

The key physical risks that could impact future mortality considered in this report are:

  • Change in average temperatures
  • Noncompensable heat stress
  • Air pollution
  • Droughts
  • Floods (extreme rainfall)
  • Food insecurity
  • Vector-borne diseases
  • Tropical cyclones, storm surges (coastal flooding), and sea level rise

The paper also explores the potential impact associated with transition policies that could improve diet and active travel.

Table 1 summarizes ˿ƵAPP’s analysis of how, according to current academic literature, the mortality impact of physical risks related to climate change might change by 2050 in a “middle of the road” 1°C warming scenario in Hong Kong.

The analysis explores a range of climate-related factors, noting only slight increases in mortality risk from several of those factors and a decrease in morality risk from at least one of them (air pollution – due to a planned transition to renewable energy). For a breakdown of how these figures were derived, read the complete paper.

Based on around 52,000 annual population deaths currently experienced in Hong Kong, physical risks associated with climate change under this scenario would account for slightly more than 500 additional annual population deaths. However, this estimate does not factor in anticipated population growth through 2050 or, except for the impact on average temperatures, the expected aging of the population.

We are unable to quantify the potential change in relation to the impact of food insecurity, although it is likely to increase annual population deaths.

On the positive side, risks associated with the transition to a lower carbon economy have the potential to improve health:

  • If designed and implemented appropriately, sustainable food and agriculture policies could encourage people to eat a calorie-balanced diet rich in plant-based nutrition.
  • Sustainable travel and transport policies could encourage people to walk or cycle instead of using their cars.

Caveats and other considerations

Climate science has improved markedly over recent decades, but significant uncertainty remains. That said, even doubling or tripling the impacts of each risk to account for uncertainty would still lead to a relatively modest overall physical impact in Hong Kong in the given scenario. It is important to acknowledge, however, that considerations outside of the scope this paper could also play a significant role:

Future impact on mortality

This analysis focuses on the direct mortality impacts of physical risks, but these physical risks could cause new onset morbidity that may lead to negative mortality impacts further into the future. For example, extreme weather events, such as flooding for those who lose their homes or livelihoods and are displaced, could lead to negative mental health outcomes.

Severe weather

Severe weather events that do not have a significant direct mortality impact can still have significant negative economic impacts and severely damage infrastructure, both of which could lead to negative health consequences and, ultimately, higher mortality.

Longer-term impact

We have considered a “middle of the road” emissions scenario over the period to 2050. Over longer periods and in higher emissions scenarios, the mortality impact could be greater.

Interactions between risk

This analysis considered each physical risk in isolation, but reality is more complex and interactions between risks increases uncertainty. There is also the risk of reaching climate tipping points, which could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of increased greenhouse gas emissions and warming. 

Animal interactions

Some of the actions that have led to climate change, such as deforestation, bring humans and animals closer into contact, which increases the risk of zoonotic disease transmission and increases the risk of future pandemics. 

Conclusion

For those physical risks where the change could be estimated, the overall impact of climate change on mortality in Hong Kong was relatively modest, with annual population deaths potentially increasing by around 1% in 2050. In addition, this impact would be reduced by adaptation measures taken to mitigate the mortality impact of these physical risks. This potentially surprising result may be counter to expectations of a more significant impact, although we need to recognize the uncertainties involved.  

The modest negative mortality impact from physical risks in Hong Kong outlined here does not absolve society from taking action – both in Hong Kong and globally – to limit greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change impacts.

Climate change remains a significant risk factor and a priority issue that must be addressed through collective action at the government, corporate, and individual levels. The insurance industry has an opportunity to play a leadership role in combating the climate crisis by promoting awareness, providing education, and inspiring, motivating, and incentivizing populations to modify behaviors in ways that will benefit their own health and the planet’s health.

This report on climate change in Hong Kong part of ˿ƵAPP’s ongoing commitment to helping clients evaluate emerging risks. ˿ƵAPP combines a global perspective with local expertise to deliver actionable insights about the most important issues impacting insurers. Contact us to learn more.

˿ƵAPP has made all reasonable efforts to ensure that the information provided in this publication is accurate at the time of inclusion and accepts no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.


More Like This...

Meet the Authors & Experts

Chris Falkous
Author
Chris Falkous
Vice President, Senior Biometric Insights Actuary, Global Biometric Research

References

Note: This list contains all references used for the creation of the white paper, “The Impact of Climate Change on Future Mortality in Hong Kong,” which served as the source for all content contained in this article. 

  • Achebak et al. (2018). Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: A 36-year observational study, PLoS Med, 2018.
  • Chen et al. (2024). Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels, Nature Communications, 2024.
  • Chen et al. (2021). Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations, Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.
  • Colón-González et al. (2021). Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study, Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.
  • Gasparrini et al. (2015). Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study, Lancet, 2015.
  • Gasparrini et al. (2017). Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios, Lancet Planetary Health, 2017.
  • Hamilton et al. (2021). The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study, Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.
  • Ma et al. (2024). Food insecurity and premature mortality and life expectancy in the US, JAMA Intern Med.
  • Mordecai et al. (2020). Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa, Lancet Planetary Health, 2020.
  • Powis et al. (2023). Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming, Sci. Adv.
  • Trancoso et al. (2024). Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population, Nature Communications, 2024.
  • Yang et al. (2023). Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study, BMJ.