Estimates from the World Economic Forum (WEF), made in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, suggest that, cumulatively by 2050, climate change could lead to an additional 14.5 million deaths worldwide under a “middle of the road” greenhouse gas emissions scenario, driven by floods, droughts, heatwaves, and tropical storms.
To a first-order approximation, the WEF/Oliver Wyman estimates imply that annual average global mortality rates could increase by around 1% by 2050. Vulnerability to these climate change risks varies by region, and so it is to be expected that if the average impact is 1%, some regions may see a significantly higher increase in mortality rates.
Asia is expected to be affected by most risks associated with climate change. The WEF analysis points to the vulnerability of Asia to tropical storms, Southeast Asia in relation to floods, and southern East Asia in relation to heatwaves.
Given the importance of the insurance market in Hong Kong, ˿ƵAPP reviewed the academic literature to assess the possible impact climate change could have on future mortality in Hong Kong by 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 “middle of the road” emissions scenario. This article provides a summary of that analysis.
The key physical risks that could impact future mortality considered in this report are:
The paper also explores the potential impact associated with transition policies that could improve diet and active travel.
Table 1 summarizes ˿ƵAPP’s analysis of how, according to current academic literature, the mortality impact of physical risks related to climate change might change by 2050 in a “middle of the road” 1°C warming scenario in Hong Kong.
The analysis explores a range of climate-related factors, noting only slight increases in mortality risk from several of those factors and a decrease in morality risk from at least one of them (air pollution – due to a planned transition to renewable energy). For a breakdown of how these figures were derived, read the complete paper.
Based on around 52,000 annual population deaths currently experienced in Hong Kong, physical risks associated with climate change under this scenario would account for slightly more than 500 additional annual population deaths. However, this estimate does not factor in anticipated population growth through 2050 or, except for the impact on average temperatures, the expected aging of the population.
We are unable to quantify the potential change in relation to the impact of food insecurity, although it is likely to increase annual population deaths.
On the positive side, risks associated with the transition to a lower carbon economy have the potential to improve health:
Climate science has improved markedly over recent decades, but significant uncertainty remains. That said, even doubling or tripling the impacts of each risk to account for uncertainty would still lead to a relatively modest overall physical impact in Hong Kong in the given scenario. It is important to acknowledge, however, that considerations outside of the scope this paper could also play a significant role:
This analysis focuses on the direct mortality impacts of physical risks, but these physical risks could cause new onset morbidity that may lead to negative mortality impacts further into the future. For example, extreme weather events, such as flooding for those who lose their homes or livelihoods and are displaced, could lead to negative mental health outcomes.
Severe weather events that do not have a significant direct mortality impact can still have significant negative economic impacts and severely damage infrastructure, both of which could lead to negative health consequences and, ultimately, higher mortality.
We have considered a “middle of the road” emissions scenario over the period to 2050. Over longer periods and in higher emissions scenarios, the mortality impact could be greater.
This analysis considered each physical risk in isolation, but reality is more complex and interactions between risks increases uncertainty. There is also the risk of reaching climate tipping points, which could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of increased greenhouse gas emissions and warming.
Some of the actions that have led to climate change, such as deforestation, bring humans and animals closer into contact, which increases the risk of zoonotic disease transmission and increases the risk of future pandemics.
For those physical risks where the change could be estimated, the overall impact of climate change on mortality in Hong Kong was relatively modest, with annual population deaths potentially increasing by around 1% in 2050. In addition, this impact would be reduced by adaptation measures taken to mitigate the mortality impact of these physical risks. This potentially surprising result may be counter to expectations of a more significant impact, although we need to recognize the uncertainties involved.
The modest negative mortality impact from physical risks in Hong Kong outlined here does not absolve society from taking action – both in Hong Kong and globally – to limit greenhouse gas emissions and future climate change impacts.
Climate change remains a significant risk factor and a priority issue that must be addressed through collective action at the government, corporate, and individual levels. The insurance industry has an opportunity to play a leadership role in combating the climate crisis by promoting awareness, providing education, and inspiring, motivating, and incentivizing populations to modify behaviors in ways that will benefit their own health and the planet’s health.
This report on climate change in Hong Kong part of ˿ƵAPP’s ongoing commitment to helping clients evaluate emerging risks. ˿ƵAPP combines a global perspective with local expertise to deliver actionable insights about the most important issues impacting insurers. Contact us to learn more.
˿ƵAPP has made all reasonable efforts to ensure that the information provided in this publication is accurate at the time of inclusion and accepts no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.
˿ƵAPP's white paper on climate change in Hong Kong is part of an ongoing commitment to helping insurers assess emerging risks. ˿ƵAPP experts combine global perspective with local knowledge to deliver actionable insights. Contact us to learn more.
Note: This list contains all references used for the creation of the white paper, “The Impact of Climate Change on Future Mortality in Hong Kong,” which served as the source for all content contained in this article.
